In the race for the U.S. Senate, state representative James Talarico (D-Austin ) leads Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by just half a percentage point, according to a new poll. In his campaign for a fourth term, Greg Abbott leads state representative Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin ) by just one point.
The survey of 1, 167 likely Texas voters, which has a margin of error of 2.9 percent, revealed that 44 percent would support Talarico if the election were held today, 44.6 % would support Paxton, and 12.6 % were undecided. The confused tended to lean toward Paxton and Talarico, respectively, 53 % of the time.
The poll, which was conducted by Overton Insights in collaboration with the Texas Public Policy Foundation ( TPPF), echoes previous surveys that indicated a close contest, with the Cook Political Report recently calling the race a toss-up.
Abbott won the presidential election by 47 percent to 46 cent, with 7 % undecided, but undecided voters would have preferred Abbott by almost 59 % if the election were held today.
Republicans have frequently been underrepresented in polls in recent election cycles, and in 2024, Republican Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX ) outperformed the RealClearPolitics average by about 4 %. Democrats ‘ attempts to defeat Cruz in the 2018 election were foiled, but Cruz was the former and not really trailed in the polls, unlike Paxton.
Progressives hope that this year will result in their first statewide election defeat since 1994, and Republican President Donald Trump’s lower approval ratings may help them do so.
According to the Overton Insights/TPPF poll, 54 % of respondents either somewhat or very much disapproved of Trump’s handling of his position as president, and 54 % or very disapproved of his tariff policies. They had a wide range of opinions on how well the administration handled emigration problems.
Republicans also held a slight lead over Democrats on a general congressional vote, at 46 percentage, but only 10 % of respondents said they would support a prospect other than the Democratic or Republican nominee.
The Texans who were surveyed also expressed solid opposition to installing cameras on public roads, according to almost 64 percent of those polled.
More than half of the respondents were in favor of regional bans on data center design in their own neighborhoods. 54 percent of respondents were still against adding safeguards to limit water consumption and noise pollution while requiring the facilities to use their own power.
Data centers have become a hot button in the 2026 elections, with Hinojosa criticizing Abbott for allegedly bringing them to the state over the past few years, while the government mandated that the Public Utility Commission of Texas and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas require data centres to pay for their own electronic equipment costs.
Paxton and Talarico have also voiced their opinions on the locations, and last week Paxton unveiled his plan to expand the protection of data centres and artificial intelligence.
Below is a version of the Overton Insights/TPPF study.
