The 120th Congress will be decided by South Texas voters on November 3rd, when the newly redrawn Congressional District ( CD ) 28 will be represented. Republican challenger to the incumbent, U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX-28 ), will face Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina.
The Rio Grande Valley and the U.S. Mexico border are both included in CD 28’s spacious district, which extends north to San Antonio. The district’s former safe Democratic seats has become more aggressive as Hispanic voters, who make up over 75 % of its population, have recently shifted to Republicans.
Democratic nominee Joe Biden defeated then-President Donald Trump by a margin of just 53 % and 46 % in the 2020 presidential election, a significant decrease from the 19-point and 22-point margins enjoyed by Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, respectively, in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2012.
Republican made a serious effort to fight Cuellar in 2022 as a result. Cassy Garcia, the Republican nominee for president, was defeated by a margin of 56 % to 43 %, despite her significantly better performance than Sandra Whitten, the 2020 candidate.
Cuellar was charged with bribery, money laundering, and being an unlicensed international agent of Azerbaijan in 2024. He denied the accusations and entered a not-guilty plea. Republican Jay Furman had a much better chance of defeating Cuellar the following season despite having a poorly funded strategy and only having a 53 to 47 percent triumph margin.
Cuellar’s effectiveness, however, stands out more than another Democrats’, who continued to burn in the Rio Grande Valley. Political U.S. Senator member, then U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX ) lost to S. Rep. Collin Allred (D-TX-32 ) by just 1 % of a point in the district, and now-President Trump defeated Kamala Harris by a 53 percent to 46 percent margin.
In their mid-decade legislature effort in 2025, Republicans targeted the region. More remote and borderland areas, including parts of Maverick and Hidalgo regions, were exchanged for more rural and border land under the new CD 28. The new area would have favored Trump by ten percentage points in the parallel U.S. Senate race and hardly preferred Cruz over Allred in the election.
Voters may not cooperate, even though Republicans designed the city to choose a Republican.
For one, according to a study by the University of Virginia’s Crystal Ball, Political U.S. House candidates performed better in the new CD 28 than the previous one. In other words, Trump’s campaign appeal did not completely translate into the down-ballot.
Additionally, Republicans have been having a difficult time getting Latino voters ‘ votes in the midterm elections for 2026, which have an enormous impact on a district that is overwhelmingly Mexican like CD 28.
Despite his constitutional problems, Cuellar is regarded as one of the most reasonable Democrats in the U.S. House. He occasionally votes with Democrats on abortion actions, one of the last Democrats to declare himself pro-life. Cuellar also supported background checks, despite opposing legislation to ban so-called assault weapons and large-capacity newspapers. He was the only Democrat to support the Republican-aligned Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, which requires video evidence of American citizen to cast ballot in national elections, and he has also taken more conservative positions on immigration and transgender sports participation.
Trump has faced criticism from Cuellar over a number of problems. He claimed that the government’s plan to deport people in large numbers is unnecessary, stating,” Go after thieves — anyone who poses a threat to national security.” That is it. Individuals without criminal records are not required to go to job or other locations.
After the Supreme Court found the government’s punitive tariffs unconstitutional, he also introduced a bill, H. R. 7865, which would “return money directly to consumers.” Prices for groceries, gasoline, vehicles, and other common items have gone up thanks to tariffs.
The president has emphasized his ability to transcend celebration lines and accomplish goals. These choices have allowed Cuellar to win major crossover support among Republicans in the general election.
The only race-related open survey conducted by Texas Southern University in August suggests that trend will likely continue. Cuellar led Tijerina in their opinion by 45 percent to 34 percentage, while 15 percentage questioned. Green Party member Marlon Duran is likewise voting. Even though he hasn’t taken the joke really, he might influence some of Cuellar’s more moderate left-leaners, which might be important in a nearby election. 6 % of voters voted in favor of him, according to the ballot.
In the poll, Tijerina received only 4 percent of Harris ‘ backers, compared to Cuellar’s 23 percent of those who said they supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Additionally, Cuellar won 17 percent of voters who indicated they were supporting Governor. Governor Abbott defeated state representative Gina Hinojosa (D-Austin ), and 15 % of those who voted for Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in his Senate bid against state representative James Talarico (D-Austin ).
Republicans have long sought to persuade him to change functions, despite the difficulty of dislodging Cuellar. When Trump pardoned Cuellar in December for the accusations against him, things started to get better. The president criticized Cuellar’s decision to stay away from Republicans because he” thought there would be a great chance” that the Democrat may change.
Cuellar stated,” My wife and I remain appreciative of President Trump, and we are proud that this problem is behind our family,” in an effort to stop Trump from criticizing him for not switching events. Although we won’t agree on every issue, I’ve always been open to working with both functions when it serves the folks I represent.
Tijerina is the type of person Republicans hoped Cuellar may be in many ways. In South Texas, a Latino elected as a Democrat in 2015, he changed events and switched to Republican in soon 2024. He remarked at the time,” I’ve watched the national Democratic Party deviate further left, supporting plans that don’t reflect the values of our society.”
Cuellar’s loss of contact with the neighborhood was criticized by Tijerina. The former “has chosen himself and Washington,” according to Tijerina’s promotion website. South Texas is what I’m going for. South Texas deserves healthier, and a trustworthy Congressman is now required.
There was a “black fog” hanging over Laredo, Tijerina claimed, and Trump pardoned him for the fraud allegations he brought against Cuellar.
Both individuals have raised and spent a lot of money. According to Federal Ethics Commission reports, the Cuellar campaign raised$ 626, 497, spent$ 245, 902, and ended the quarter with$ 1, 144, 603 in cash on hand and$ 301, 000 in debt. Tijerina raised$ 577, 783, spent$ 275, 180, and reported$ 876, 257 cash on hand, with no debt.
A small change from the previous CD 28’s D-51 % report indicates that the new CD 28 is <a href="https://thetexan.news/texas-partisan-index/”>Texas Partisan Index-compliant. It is still considered to be one of the country’s most aggressive regions because of this. Cuellar is typically regarded <a href="https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/house”>as a favorite to <a href="http://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house”>win re-election, though in various ways.
